The Goodwood Tips & Betting 2011

May 6th, 2011

The Goodwood 2011 has to be the hardest race of the entire weekend to find a winner. There is a full contingent of 20 horses in the field with a good deal of them having a reasonable winning chance.

With a field of this size even the most credentialed runner can easily find problems so it’s worth considering every horse, even those at big odds.

Barriers also come right into play here as a forward striding horse getting stuck out wide will find it nearly impossible to win.

You also need to look at the jockey’s, which have been in high pressure races of this size and which haven’t, also never underestimate the value of local knowledge.

With all that being said the task doesn’t actually look any easier but nevertheless we’ve done our homework and we’ve found what we think is the best value trifecta come race day.

The Goodwood and indeed Morphettville Racecourse in general have a nasty habit of throwing a few curveballs but we’ll take them on and you should too.

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The Goodwood Tips 2011

1st – As far as we’re concerned Crystal Lily is the favourite and Crystal Lily deserves to be the favourite. Forget her last run when connections tried a new strategy which didn’t pay off, this horse will be back to her best and the rest of the field won’t be able to match her. Two and three starts back this horse ran second to Black Caviar, that may as well be recorded as a win because nothing else in The Goodwood would have run close. She jumps from gate 11 with a local jockey on her back, he’ll do the work and if she stays out of trouble she wins. Right now at Luxbet she’s at massive over’s at $5 so I’d get on quick because she’s a certain shortener come race day.

2nd – In barrier 7 we find Response and before we even tell you why he’s a main player we have to mention his odds, $15!. That’s right, current Luxbet fixed price is $15 for a horse which won on this same track over the same distance two starts back. It wasn’t a mug race either, second to cross the line was Beaded with Miss Octopussy third. Barrier isn’t an issue, jockey isn’t an issue in fact try as we might we can’t find an issue. Last start was a 6th in the T.J Smith behind Black Caviar and Hay List so that’s not exactly bad form either. We think Crystal Lily can get the job done but it’s a flip of the coin and at these odds Response has to be the value runner of the field.

3rd – We said the locals could play a part here and we think the one raising a few eyebrows will be Streetcar Magic. He’s won six of his last seven including two this year and his last win saw him beat plenty in the field including Valentine Miss and Pinwheel. Both those horses are well below $15 and the price for Streetcar Magic? A massive $51 with Luxbet. Now while we couldn’t find a reason for the high price of Response unfortunately there is a catch here and that’s the barrier. In fact it couldn’t get any worse stuck out in gate 21. This horse has talent though and with some luck you never know where Justin Potter may be able to slot the horse in. Even if he is stuck a little wide we think he has the talent to still run on and at $51 he’s certainly worth a shot.