With a field of this size even the most credentialed runner can easily find problems so it’s worth considering every horse, even those at big odds.

Barriers also come right into play here as a forward striding horse getting stuck out wide will find it nearly impossible to win.

You also need to look at the jockey’s, which have been in high pressure races of this size and which haven’t, also never underestimate the value of local knowledge.

With all that being said the task doesn’t actually look any easier but nevertheless we’ve done our homework and we’ve found what we think is the best value trifecta come race day.

The Goodwood and indeed Morphettville Racecourse in general have a nasty habit of throwing a few curveballs but we’ll take them on and you should too.

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The Goodwood Tips 2011

1st – As far as we’re concerned Crystal Lily is the favourite and Crystal Lily deserves to be the favourite. Forget her last run when connections tried a new strategy which didn’t pay off, this horse will be back to her best and the rest of the field won’t be able to match her. Two and three starts back this horse ran second to Black Caviar, that may as well be recorded as a win because nothing else in The Goodwood would have run close. She jumps from gate 11 with a local jockey on her back, he’ll do the work and if she stays out of trouble she wins. Right now at Luxbet she’s at massive over’s at $5 so I’d get on quick because she’s a certain shortener come race day.

2nd – In barrier 7 we find Response and before we even tell you why he’s a main player we have to mention his odds, $15!. That’s right, current Luxbet fixed price is $15 for a horse which won on this same track over the same distance two starts back. It wasn’t a mug race either, second to cross the line was Beaded with Miss Octopussy third. Barrier isn’t an issue, jockey isn’t an issue in fact try as we might we can’t find an issue. Last start was a 6th in the T.J Smith behind Black Caviar and Hay List so that’s not exactly bad form either. We think Crystal Lily can get the job done but it’s a flip of the coin and at these odds Response has to be the value runner of the field.

3rd – We said the locals could play a part here and we think the one raising a few eyebrows will be Streetcar Magic. He’s won six of his last seven including two this year and his last win saw him beat plenty in the field including Valentine Miss and Pinwheel. Both those horses are well below $15 and the price for Streetcar Magic? A massive $51 with Luxbet. Now while we couldn’t find a reason for the high price of Response unfortunately there is a catch here and that’s the barrier. In fact it couldn’t get any worse stuck out in gate 21. This horse has talent though and with some luck you never know where Justin Potter may be able to slot the horse in. Even if he is stuck a little wide we think he has the talent to still run on and at $51 he’s certainly worth a shot.

So here we have it, the winner of The Goodwood 2011 as predicted by the unquestionable psychic science.

The 2011 Goodwood Last Name Standing

From the outset it’s plain to see the emergency is Undue for a start and to be honest even if it did line up it’d need a furlong advantage.

Undeniably though that’s not the only horse the Diplomatic Force is against and we can predict the race will Culminate in the misfortune of more than a few runners.

Before you start to be a Doubtful Jack you’ll see there’s method to our madness and we’re not simply making random selections from a Pinwheel.

Shrapnel is simply far too hard to control and from barrier 10 he’s likely to take Toorak Toff course where he’ll ultimately be Catapulted off into Stirling Grove.

Crystal Lily won’t make a quick enough Response to avoid the carnage when Eagle Falls in an incident sparked due to a lack of control from Streetcar Magic.

Valentine Miss got the date wrong and didn’t even show up for the event just like Dr Doute’s who was found hiding in the Conservatorium.

That left Arinos and Ortenisa which both aren’t real words so don’t even qualify for the event and Miss Octopussy which was scratched following a complaint about the appropriateness of her name.

In the end then? The Lone Rock left over is number 19 for Robert Smerdon which will jump from barrier four. The three-year-old filly has had ten starts for two wins and four placings including a second and a third in 2011.

She’ll be ridden by Clare Lindop with the lightest weight of 52kg and is relying on a dry track at Morphettville.

Luckily for all the punters out there the bookies have been slow to realise Lone Rock is a certainty in The Goodwood 2011 and she is at fixed odds above $20!

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The 20 acceptor limit was reached with one emergency on standby to ensure the full spectacle of the Group 1 Goodwood is on show for all in attendance.

While they may have failed to lure the top talent of Hay List the field still has plenty of nationally rated runners and the contest is going to be fiercely fought.

Crystal Lily is the highest rated runner in the field and she has a big weight advantage as well meaning she’ll likely be the favourite when they jump.

Her barrier draw of 11 wasn’t ideal but she actually fared better then a good number of her main rivals.

Eagle Falls was the big loser of the top hopes after drawing barrier 19 to go alongside his top weight of 58kg.

Miss Octopussy is another with it all to do out in gate 17 however she is the equal bottom weight with 52kg.

Ortensia will start on the outside of Crystal Lily in gate 12 but has a kilo on her rival and it will be an interesting battle of tactics to see if they roll forward or hang back.

Performing better in the barrier draw was Response which will carry 56.5kg from barrier seven and will be one of the favourites for the race.

Doubtful Jack was the best of them all with his far inside draw and that could be enough for the Peter Moody runner to return to the winning form he’s failed to produce in his last few runs.

As with most races which have fields of this size picking a winner is tough, especially with so chances across the board.

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The Goodwood 2011 Final Field, Barriers & Weight

It’s expected that many of the top runners may forgo their spot in Adelaide to be saved for races later in the Winter Carnival.

Hay List has been confirmed as a non-runner in The Goodwood and he’ll instead go to Brisbane where he’ll once again take on the mountainous challenge of Black Caviar.

That has robbed The Goodwood of one of the main drawcards however Adelaide will still have plenty of good horses heading its way.

Towards the top of the ballot are well known sprinters like Group 1 winner Eagle Falls and Catapulted from Mark Kavanagh.

The equal second top rated runner is Response which is alongside Paul Messara’s Alverta.

Perennial second place getter Crystal Lily is also still in the nominations just ahead of the New Zealander Culminate.

Throw into the mix top competitors Shrapnel and Ortensia and it quickly becomes an imposing list of national sprinters.

In reality the true scope of the race won’t be known until after acceptances with a dramatic shift in numbers expected when final payments are due.

Keep this in mind for your 2011 The Goodwood betting as the inclusion of some or none of the big hopes will send markets into a spin.

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2011 The Goodwood Nominations, Weight & Ballot

By Horse Racing Journalist, Ryan Clark.

34 horses have nominated for the $350,000 The Goodwood, including John McNair’s champion gelding Hay List.

The running of Hay List all depends on whether or not Racing SA can come up with a sponsor that is willing to pay the approximated $55,000 transport fee that would be required to take the five-year-old to and from Adelaide.

McNair has said that the South Australian Jockey Club (SAJC) is very excited about the prospect of having a horse like Hay List at their racecourse.

“I’ve spoken to Brenton Wilkinson from the South Australian Jockey Club today and he’s very keen to get him over there,” McNair said.

“I made a few suggestions and he’s gone off to do some homework in regards to see if there could be some sponsors.”

Brenton Wilkinson said he would try his hardest to assure Hay List could make the 1,200 metre race.

“John is going to nominate the horse for The Goodwood tomorrow and we’re just going to keep working in the next few days on how we can get him here as quickly as possible,” Mr Wilkinson said.

“John said that the owners and himself would much prefer the horse to fly so we’re just going to look at every avenue we can to have the horse down here because the day Takeover Target came to Adelaide was a great day for us, and to have a horse the quality of Hay List here would just be sensational.

“We will also look at the option of whether we can organise a flight, rather than going back to Sydney, whether we can get a flight to Brisbane for him.”

Mr Wilkinson believes that sponsoring Hay List’s trip to Adelaide would be a very smart business decision.

“It’s a huge publicity opportunity for South Australia and for somebody to get involved with,” he said.

“I don’t have a specific person in mind (but) I will talk to Tourism SA to see whether or not they are happy to assist us in getting a horse like him here, because if we didn’t have Black Caviar he would be the pin-up horse of Australia.”

In the case that a sponsor is not found, McNair says there is no chance that he will float Hay List down to Morphettville Racecourse.

“That’s not on the cards, especially since we can wait another week and go to Brisbane (for the BTC Cup),” McNair said.

Also amongst the 2011 The Goodwood nominations is Black Caviar’s full younger brother Moshe.

Moshe has shown tremendous horse racing form to win three of his four previous starts and will be competing in his first Stakes level race in the 2011 The Goodwood.

The three-year-old has won more than $62,500 in his short career and will be looking to fill the shoes of big sister Black Caviar with a win in the 2011 The Goodwood.

Also included in the  2011 The Goodwood nominations is Paul Messara’s Alverta, Mathew Ellerton and Simon Zahra’s Crystal Lily, David Hayes’ Eagle Falls, Tony Noonan’s Ortensia, Mark Kavanagh’s Shrapnel and Rick Hore-Lacy’s Toorak Toff.

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2011 The Goodwood Nominations

Four-year-old mare Velocitea ($7) hugged the rails all the way, eventually snaring victory by a long neck from the local hero and hot favourite, the Mark Kavanagh-trained Catapulted ($2.60) who had set the pace leading for all but the last 60m.

Lightly-raced but consistent mare Very Discreet ($13) finished off the trifecta for third.

Velocitea, a winner of seven of her 18 starts for over $550,000 in prizemoney, will now head to the feature races at the Brisbane Winter Carnival as will Catapulted.

To read more about Velocitea’s maiden Group 1 win in the 2010 Goodwood follow the links to Races.com.au or Morphettville Races, where you will also find information on the other big feature race on Sunday, the $300,000 Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m), which was won by the favourite Kidnapped.

Results of the Distinctive Homes Goodwood 2010:

The clear pre-race favourite, currently paying $3.50 through IASbet, is the Mark Kavanagh-trained Catapulted who has a sensational record at the Morphettville track.

Last start winner of the Group 3 D C McKay Stakes (1100m), four-year-old Catbird gelding Catapulted is drawing plenty of attention from the punters and his odds are only set to shorten as race day approaches.

Kavanagh could have a very successful day on Sunday at Morphettville as he also trains the odds-on favourite Zantelagh in the $100,000 Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m).

Second and third elects in the Goodwood betting markets are the Mick Price-trained Velocitea at $5.50 drawn ideally in barrier one, and Rostova who is the only Group 1 winner of the field having taken out the Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) two starts back.

Paying $7.50 Rostova represents good value in the Goodwood, also drawn well in barrier two, but may have a bit of trouble with the weights.

Further down in the odds at $17 is the Richard Jolly-trained Very Discreet who looks excellent for a Place bet here after the four-year-old Exceed And Excel mare claimed victory in the Listed Oakbank Stakes (1100m) last start.

At the longest odds for the Goodwood is Likable Will paying $101 for a win with IASbet, who have terrific odds open on all of the quality Morphettville Races on this Sunday.

Below is a list of the current odds for the 17 runners in this year’s Distinctive Homes Goodwood.

2010 Goodwood Betting Markets:

*Odds provided by IASbet and are correct at the time of publishing, but are subject to change.

Two elite level races highlight the programme, the $300,000 Group 1 Goodwood (1200m) and the $300,000 Group 1 SA Derby (2500m).

The 2010 The Distinctive Homes Goodwood has attracted a near capacity field of 17 runners headlined by the early favourite, Catapulted, currently at $3.50 with IASbet.

Last start winner of the Group 3 DC Mckay Stakes (1100m), Catapulted is prepared by Melbourne Cup winning trainer Mark Kavanagh and is drawn out wide in barrier 12 for Sunday.

A consistent gelding by Catbird, four-year-old Catapulted has had only 11 race starts over his career but has consistently shown he is a great sprinter winning seven times and placing in another.

Betting on the Goodwood this year has been dominated by just a few runners, with Velocitea and Rostova the other two highly fancied contenders following Catapulted.

The Mick Price-trained Velocitea is the current second favourite at $5.50 through IASbet after drawing the prized barrier one for Sunday’s showdown.

The in-form Voksraad mare is coming off a gallant second to Rostova in the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) and is due to be ridden by Craig Newitt.

Rostova, who beat Velocitea in the Robert Sangster, is the current third favourite at $7.50 for the Goodwood and is also drawn ideally starting beside her nemesis in barrier two.

The three-year-old Testa Rossa filly ran fifth to Ortensia last start in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) and has some work to do on Sunday to return to her Robert Sangster form.

Other horses with claims in the 2010 Goodwood this Sunday include veteran six-year-old Orbit Express drawn on the inside of the favourite in barrier 11 and attempting their third successive win after two solid runs at Caulfield; the Richard Jolly-trained Very Discreet, a last start winner of the Listed Oakbank Stakes (1100m) on Easter Saturday drawn in barrier six; and four-year-old Bel Esprit gelding Beltrois out wide in barrier 14.

Other great races not to be missed at Morphettville on Sunday include the $200,000 Group 3 RA Lee Stakes (1600m) and the $100,000 Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m).

The 2010 The Distinctive homes Goodwood is scheduled as race seven and is due to jump at 3:25pm.

2010 Goodwood Final Field & Barriers:

The 2010 Goodwood is sponsored by Distinctive Homes and is one of six black type races programmed for the SAJC’s Unley Telstra Shop Super Sunday.

The other Group 1 feature scheduled for the day is the $300,000 South Australian Derby (2500m) and other highlights at the meeting will including the $100,000 Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m) and the $200,000 Group 3 R A Lee Stakes (1600m).

Held two weeks earlier on April 17, the Group 3 D C Mckay Stakes (1100m) makes for an excellent lead up race and indicator for the Goodwood.

Also, many of the quality fillies and mares who previously contest the prestigious Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) on March 20 will move on to the Goodwood, and punters across the nation will be keeping a close eye on both of these earlier Adelaide sprint races.

One mare on their way to Group 1 glory in the Goodwood is the Richard Jolly-trained Very Discreet.

The four-year-old Exceed and Excel mare recently claimed victory in the Listed Oakbank Stakes (1100m) and has had her breeding career put on hold to contest the other Adelaide autumn features.

Nominations for the 2010 The Distinctive Homes Goodwood close at 12 noon (SA time) on Tuesday April 13. Late nominations will be taken up until 10 am on Tuesday April 20 before acceptances on Wednesday April 28. The final field for the 2010 Goodwood will then be published here.